CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-29T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31751/-1
CME Note: Very faint loop CME seen to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a bit elusive, but may possibly be the liftoff of some filamentary material from one of the many filaments currently on the Earth-facing disk. Based on a stereoscopic measurement (with Lat:-17 and Lon:36), this may possibly be the liftoff of some material from a filament visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery which spanned from S40W10 to S25W60 at the start time of this CME. This CME overlaps with CME:2024-06-29T03:36Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-03T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31785/1
Model Inputs:
2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T10:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-03T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-02T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_104200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.48 hour(s)
Difference: -6.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-29T17:12Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement